To his admirers, Wang Qishan is the best premierChina never had. Over the past four decades the 69-year-old head of President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign has built one of the mostremarkable CVs in modern Chinese politics.
在仰慕者看來，王岐山是中國未來最佳的總理人選。現(xiàn)年69歲的王岐山——國家主席習近平發(fā)起的反腐運動的負責人——過去40年間交出了一份現(xiàn)代中國政治中極為引人注目的履歷。
From his emergence as an influential youngreformer in the early 1980s to his handling of tradeand economic relations with the US during the global financial crisis, Mr Wang has played animportant role in almost every pivotal financial and economic reform in modern Chinese history.
從上世紀80年代初作為一名有影響力的年輕改革者嶄露頭角，到在全球金融危機期間處理與美國的經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系，王岐山在中國現(xiàn)代史上幾乎每一次關(guān)鍵金融和經(jīng)濟改革中都扮演了重要角色。
More recently he has stood out in a much more political post. Since late 2012 he has been, assome refer to him, “the handle on President Xi’s knife”. Under Mr Wang’s leadership, the rulingCommunist party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has tormented governmentministers, People’s Liberation Army generals and state-owned enterprise executives. Hisinvestigators have arrested more than 150 officials with vice-ministerial rank or higher — so-called “tigers” — for alleged corruption.
更近一段時期，他在一個更具政治色彩的位置上再次鋒芒畢露。自2012年末以來，他一直被一些人稱為“習主席的刀把子”。在王岐山的領(lǐng)導下，執(zhí)政的中國共產(chǎn)黨的中央紀律檢查委員會已讓大批政府部長、解放軍將軍和國企高管落馬。他手下的調(diào)查人員打掉了150多名涉嫌腐敗的副部級及以上俗稱“老虎”的高官。
As China prepares for a crucial Communist party congress in the autumn, which is expected toformally mark Mr Xi’s second five-year term and reshuffle parts of the senior leadership, MrWang has become one of the central figures in the intense, behind-the-scenes machinations.By recent precedent, Mr Wang, who has passed the unofficial retirement age of 68, might beexpected to resign from the Politburo Standing Committee and fade into the background.Instead, there is a growing whispering campaign that he will be given an expanded economicpolicy role — perhaps, even, as premier, in place of Li Keqiang.
在中國籌備今秋關(guān)鍵的中共十九大——預(yù)計將正式標志習近平開啟第二個五年任期，并改組部分最高領(lǐng)導層——之際，王岐山已成為這場激烈的幕后權(quán)力斗爭中的核心人物之一。根據(jù)近些年形成的慣例，已年過68歲非官方退休年齡的王岐山預(yù)計將退出中央政治局常委會，退居幕后。然而，越來越多的人私下議論，稱他將在經(jīng)濟政策領(lǐng)域被賦予一個更大的角色——甚至有可能取代李克強出任總理。
For many observers of the Chinese economy, such a promotion could help unlock Mr Xi’sstalled economic reforms, with Mr Wang the sort of tough enforcer and political infighter neededto take on the vested interests that have stifled previous efforts.
在許多中國經(jīng)濟觀察人士看來，這樣的晉升安排可以幫助習近平重啟停滯的經(jīng)濟改革進程，王岐山是一位強硬的行動派和政治斗士，而中國正需要這樣一位政治人物與那些扼殺了此前努力的既得利益者較量。
“It would send a huge shock through the system if the guy who has all the information oneveryone were suddenly put in charge of the economy,” says one person who has met MrWang.
一位曾與王岐山有過會面的人士表示：“如果掌握了所有人信息的那個人突然被安排主管經(jīng)濟，這將給整個體制造成巨大沖擊�！�
Mr Wang’s career appears to be coming full circle as his anti-corruption inspectors havefocused their attention this year on China’s financial sector. As a result, Mr Wang’s agency ishaving a profound impact on macroeconomic policy, helping the party contain financial riskwhile redirecting capital flows away from speculative activities and back into the real economy.
隨著手下反腐調(diào)查人員將今年的注意力集中到中國的金融部門，王岐山的職業(yè)生涯似乎正在形成一個完整的循環(huán)。如此一來，王岐山領(lǐng)導的機構(gòu)正在對中國的宏觀經(jīng)濟政策產(chǎn)生深刻影響，幫助中共遏制金融風險，同時將資本流動從投機活動引回實體經(jīng)濟。
In a closed-door session in the spring, one international delegation was surprised to see MrWang flanked by a large number of senior financial officials, according to three people briefedon the meeting. “I have previously focused only on [the anti-corruption campaign],” MrWang told his visitors, leaving the strong impression that he would be leading many morediscussions about Chinese economic and financial issues in coming years.
據(jù)三名知情人士透露，在今春的一次閉門會議上，一個國際代表團驚訝地發(fā)現(xiàn)王岐山身邊簇擁著眾多高級金融官員�！拔乙郧爸魂P(guān)注（反腐）”，王岐山對來訪者說——這給人留下的強烈印象是，他將在未來幾年主導更多關(guān)于中國經(jīng)濟和金融問題的討論。
A historian by training, after the chaos of the Cultural Revolution Mr Wang worked in anantiquities museum in Shaanxi province. He is famous for his wit — an attribute lacking in manyof his senior party colleagues — and for being one of the best-read people at the top of theChinese government hierarchy. In public and private conversations, according to friends andcolleagues, it is not unusual for him to flit between subjects as diverse as Alexis deTocqueville’s famous study of the French Revolution and the latest theories in astronomy.
作為一名受過正規(guī)訓練的史學工作者，文化大革命動亂結(jié)束后，王岐山曾在陜西省博物館工作。他素以機智——許多黨內(nèi)高官同僚缺乏的特質(zhì)——聞名，而且還是中國政府高層中閱讀最廣泛的官員之一。據(jù)友人和同僚說，在公開和私下談話中，他經(jīng)常在各種不同的主題——從亞歷克斯?德?托克維爾(Alexis de Tocqueville)關(guān)于法國大革命的著作到最新的天文學理論——之間來回穿梭。
Mr Wang first emerged as an up-and-coming technocrat in the mid-1990s when he helpedlaunch China’s premier investment bank, China International Capital Corp, a joint venturebetween China Construction Bank and Morgan Stanley that the latter exited in 2004.
上世紀90年代中期，王岐山首先作為一名很有前途的技術(shù)官僚嶄露頭角，當時他推動中國建設(shè)銀行與摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)成立了中國最知名的合資投資銀行——中國國際金融有限公司(China InternationalCapital Corp)。摩根士丹利后于2010年退出。
In 1999 Mr Wang oversaw China’s biggest-ever bankruptcy after Guangdong InternationalTrust and Investment Corp, a state-owned investment group, collapsed with debts of $5bn. Inthe first decade of this century, he was deeply involved in the restructuring of China’s state-owned banking sector.
1999年，國有投資集團廣東國際信托投資公司(GITIC)負債50億美元倒閉后，王岐山主持完成了中國有史以來最大規(guī)模的破產(chǎn)案。本世紀頭十年，他深度參與了中國國有銀行部門的重組。
It was Mr Wang’s work on the Gitic bankruptcy that sealed his reputation as China’s bestjiuhuo duizhang, or “fire brigade chief”. And when the Sars virus broke out in Beijing in 2003,Mr Wang was installed as mayor, where he defused the public health crisis and oversawpreparations for the 2008 Summer Olympics. As one senior government official puts it: “Everything Wang Qishan touches turns to gold.”
王岐山在廣東國際信托投資公司破產(chǎn)案中的表現(xiàn)為他贏得了“救火隊長”的美譽。2003年SARS病毒在北京爆發(fā)期間，王岐山被任命為北京市長，他成功化解了此次公共衛(wèi)生危機，并負責2008年夏季奧運會的籌備工作。正如一位政府高官所言：“王岐山有‘點石成金’的本事。”
This widely regarded Midas touch is one of the reasons why a “Wang-for-premier” campaignhas been brewing in Beijing over the past year. Past procedure would suggest that Mr Li will beconfirmed in the autumn for another five-year term as premier, while Mr Wang retires.
這種公認的“點石成金”的能力，是一場“王岐山出任總理”的造勢運動過去一年一直在北京醞釀的原因之一。按慣例，李克強將在今秋被確認繼續(xù)下一個五年任期，而王岐山將退休。
However, in October an official publicly dismissed the supposed retirement age limit as “purefolklore” while a party journal quoted Mr Xi as saying that it “can’t simply draw the line based onage” when appointing officials.
然而，去年10月，一名官員公開將所謂退休年齡限制斥為“純粹民間說法”，而一份中共黨刊援引習近平的話稱，任命官員“不能簡單以年齡劃線”。
Such comments have heightened speculation that Mr Li, whose authority over economicmatters has been eroded by Mr Xi, could be sidelined to head China’s rubber-stampparliament. That would open the way for Mr Wang to ascend to the premiership.
此類言論加劇了外界的猜測，即李克強可能會被邊緣化，改為領(lǐng)導中國的“橡皮圖章”議會——全國人大。這將為王岐山出任總理之職鋪平道路。李克強在經(jīng)濟問題上的權(quán)力早已受到了習的制約。
Another option would be for Mr Li to remain as premier while keeping Mr Wang on the PSC,possibly with an economic and financial portfolio. “Xi and Li have buried the hatchet,” says onewell-connected Asian diplomat who believes that Mr Li will keep his job.
另一種選擇是李克強繼續(xù)擔任總理，同時讓王岐山留任中央政治局常委，可能主抓經(jīng)濟和金融。一位人脈廣泛的亞洲外交官表示：“習李之間已經(jīng)言歸于好�！彼J為李克強將繼續(xù)擔任總理之職。
Neither potential outcome, however, is preordained. Such pre-congress machinations aresubject to change until the last moment. Mr Wang’s fate will not be confirmed until Mr Xi andhis second-term leadership team walk out on stage at the conclusion of the party congress.As one former member of the Communist party’s Central Committee recently told a group offriends, according to two people familiar with the exchange, “we don’t know who the nextpremier is going to be”.
然而，兩種可能的結(jié)果都并非注定出現(xiàn)。不到最后一刻，十九大召開前的幕后角力將一直充滿變數(shù)。王岐山的去向，要等到十九大閉幕、習近平及其第二任期領(lǐng)導班子列隊亮相之際才能落定。兩名了解高層幕后交易的人士表示，一位前中央委員最近對一群朋友說，“我們不知道下屆總理將會是誰”。
Mr Wang has also made many enemies, especially in his five years as the head of the anti-corruption campaign, increasing the a risk he could fall foul of the party’s fierce internalpoliticking. Earlier this year Guo Wengui, a previously obscure Chinese billionaire living in NewYork, issued spectacular accusations against Mr Wang and members of his family on Twitterand YouTube. Many of them centre on alleged connections between the Wang family and theHNA Group, whose opaque ownership structure has attracted scrutiny from overseasregulators. HNA has vigorously denied Mr Guo’s accusations, none of which has beensubstantiated. But some China watchers started to count the number of days that Mr Wangfailed to appear in state media as a potential sign of a falling out with Mr Xi.
王岐山也樹敵頗多，尤其是在他主抓反腐運動的五年間，這加大了他陷入黨內(nèi)激烈政治斗爭的風險。今年早些時候，現(xiàn)居紐約的一位此前鮮為人知的中國億萬富翁郭文貴，在Twitter和YouTube上對王岐山及其家人發(fā)出了聳人聽聞的指控。多數(shù)指控都圍繞王岐山家族與海航集團(HNA Group)的所謂關(guān)聯(lián)。海航不透明的所有權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)已引起了海外監(jiān)管機構(gòu)的密切關(guān)注。海航斷然否認了郭文貴的指控，且這些指控沒有一項得到證實。但一些中國觀察人士已經(jīng)開始計算王岐山在官媒上“消失”的天數(shù)，作為他與習失和的一個潛在跡象。
Both men are so-called “princelings” related to Chinese Communist party revolutionaries. Mr Xiwas born to one while Mr Wang married the daughter of another. According to Chinese mediareports, they have known each other at least since the Cultural Revolution when both men were“sent-down youth” in Shaanxi province and Mr Wang loaned his future boss an economicstextbook. But so far every rumour of Mr Wang’s political demise, often attributed to Mr Xi’spotential wariness of him as a rival, has been shown to be exaggerated.
習近平和王岐山都是與中共革命元老有親緣關(guān)系的所謂“太子黨”。習近平的父親是前中共元老，王岐山娶了另一位元老的女兒。根據(jù)中文媒體的報道，他們至少自文化大革命時期就已相識，當時兩人都是在陜西的“下鄉(xiāng)知青”，王岐山還從自己未來的老板那里“順”過一本經(jīng)濟學教材。但到目前為止，所有關(guān)于王岐山政治生涯式微的傳言——通常歸結(jié)于習可能將其作為對手的擔憂——都被證實夸大了。
Mr Wang’s frequent absences from public view are usually signs that someone else — and nothim — is in jeopardy. It was shortly after Mr Wang reappeared from his most recent absenceearlier this month that the party’s anti-corruption body detained a sitting member of Mr Xi’spolitburo for the first time, according to two people familiar with the matter. Under investigationfor a “serious violation of discipline”,
王岐山時常從公眾視野中消失，但這時候通常意味著其他人（而非王本人）處于危險之中。據(jù)兩位知情人士透露，7月初王岐山從最近一次消失中再次現(xiàn)身后不久，中紀委首次帶走了習近平領(lǐng)導的中央政治局的一名現(xiàn)任委員——中國最大城市之一重慶市的市委書記孫政才。因涉嫌“嚴重違紀”接受調(diào)查的孫政才，曾被視為習近平的接班人。
Sun Zhengcai, the party secretary of Chongqing, one of China’s largest cities, had beenconsidered a successor to Mr Xi.
與此同時，王岐山對中國金融界的整頓絲毫沒有放緩的跡象。這輪打擊始于今年早些時候多名金融家和私營部門大亨被帶走，如身家約400億元人民幣（合59億美元）的超級富豪肖建華。中國調(diào)查人員將他帶走問話，因他涉嫌利用銀行及其控制的其他上市公司推高各種金融資產(chǎn)的股價。
Meanwhile Mr Wang’s sweep through Chinese financial circles shows no sign of slowing. It beganearlier this year with the detention of financiers and private sector tycoons such as Xiao Jianhua
“肖建華是個毒瘤，”一位熟悉此輪金融業(yè)調(diào)查的中國官員稱，“他對實體經(jīng)濟沒有任何貢獻。他讓自己和很多人發(fā)了大財，卻對國家造成危害。”
, one of the country’s richest men with a fortune estimated at Rmb40bn ($5.9bn). Chineseinvestigators wanted to question Mr Xiao about allegations of using banks and other listedcompanies under his control to drive up the share prices of various financial assets.
上述官員解釋說，王岐山本輪調(diào)查背后更大的經(jīng)濟政策目標是要“停止利用金融體系作為經(jīng)濟增長的杠桿”�！叭绻覀冏龅搅�，”他補充說，“許多其他的問題將迎刃而解，如投機性資產(chǎn)泡沫。”
“Xiao Jianhua was a cancer,” says one Chinese official familiar with the financial sectorinvestigations. “He did nothing for the real economy. He made a lot of people and himself verywealthy but was doing a disservice to the country.”
王岐山最強大的支持來自中國經(jīng)濟改革派、跨國公司高管和外國外交官。這些人士認為，世界第二大經(jīng)濟體迫切需要一位王岐山的導師朱镕基那樣的行動派總理。朱镕基1998年至2003年擔任總理。
The larger economic policy goal behind Mr Wang’s investigations, the official explains, is to “stopusing the financial system as an economic growth lever”. “If we do that,” he adds, “a lot ofother problems will disappear, such as speculative asset bubbles”.
盡管只擔任過一屆總理，但朱镕基確信自己退休后將作為中國最有影響力的總理之一被銘記。朱镕基任內(nèi)，中國加入了世界貿(mào)易組織(WTO)，對國有工業(yè)和金融部門進行了全面改革——正是習近平政府首個任期內(nèi)無法或不愿解決的那種復雜而棘手的改革。
